Cologne Attacks: Hoax Or Truth?

On New Year's Eve 2015, approximately 1,200 women were sexually assaulted in Germany, particularly in the city of Cologne. The perpetrators were described by victims and witnesses as being North African, Arab, dark-skinned, and foreign. The attacks sparked debates about immigration and the treatment of refugees, with some arguing that the events were evidence of a failure to integrate migrants into German society. Others criticised the media for spreading misinformation and stoking anti-immigrant sentiment. The German government faced pressure to tighten its asylum policies and increase police presence at public events.

Were the attacks coordinated?

On 5 January 2016, the German government and the Cologne police speculated that the attacks might have been organised. However, on 21 January, the government of North Rhine-Westphalia declared that there was no indication of premeditated organised attacks. This was reiterated on 11 February by the new Cologne police chief, who suggested that the perpetrators had come from countries where such sexual assaults by groups of men against women are common.

The Federal Criminal Police Office report in June 2016 identified six factors that contributed to the occurrence of the attacks: group pressure, absence of police intervention, migrant frustrations, disinhibition caused by alcohol and/or drug use, disinhibition due to a lack of social ties with indigenous German society, and a culture of sexual assault by groups of men.

The report also noted that the attacks were likely facilitated by the crowded New Year's Eve conditions in and around Cologne's main train station and poor coordination among the different police forces responsible for responding to the situation.

While the attacks appeared to be coordinated, with groups of men surrounding and assaulting women, the evidence suggests that they were not part of a larger organised criminal conspiracy. Instead, they were likely influenced by a combination of cultural norms, substance abuse, and a lack of police intervention.

Were the attackers refugees?

The Cologne attacks, which took place during the 2015-2016 New Year's Eve celebrations, saw approximately 1,200 women sexually assaulted by large groups of men, identified by officials as Muslim men of Arab or North African origin.

In the immediate aftermath, refugees were blamed for the attacks. However, this characterisation was disputed. The new Cologne police chief, appointed in February 2016, stated that the perpetrators had come from countries where sexual assaults by groups of men against women are common. This was supported by a Federal Criminal Police Office report in June 2016, which identified six factors contributing to the attacks: group pressure, absence of police intervention, migrant frustrations, disinhibition caused by alcohol and/or drug use, disinhibition due to lack of social ties, and imitation of behaviour witnessed in others.

By April 2016, statistics showed that of the 153 suspects in Cologne who were convicted of sexual offences and other crimes, two-thirds were originally from Morocco or Algeria, 44% were asylum seekers, 12% were likely to have been in Germany illegally, and 3% were underage, unaccompanied refugees.

In July 2016, the Bundeskriminalamt (Federal Criminal Police) stated that approximately half of the 120 identified suspects nationwide of sexual violence on New Year's Eve appeared to have come to Germany in 2015 with the large flow of refugees, and most of the suspects came from North Africa.

Were the attacks under-reported?

The Cologne attacks on New Year's Eve in 2015-2016 were not under-reported by the media, but there was a delay in reporting. The attacks took place between 22:00 and 05:00, and the first reports of sexual assaults emerged on social media and in local news websites on New Year's Day. The national and international press picked up the story on 4 January, three days later, when the Cologne police chief announced that crimes of a "completely new dimension" had taken place and that the suspected perpetrators appeared to be Arab or North African.

The German state broadcaster ZDF has been criticised for not covering the attacks until 5 January. This delay has been attributed to the broadcaster's inability to find an eyewitness willing to speak on camera and confirm the ethnicity of the suspects.

The attacks were also under-reported by the Cologne police, who initially described the night as "relaxed" and "largely peaceful". This was later retracted by the police chief, who admitted that the statement was wrong. There was also confusion over the number of perpetrators involved, with a police report putting the figure at a few dozen, while numerous media sources reported that 1,000 perpetrators had been involved.

In the aftermath of the attacks, there was a rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, with some blaming refugees and migrants for the assaults. This was despite the fact that, at the time, the origins of the attackers were unknown and there was no evidence linking recently arrived refugees to the attacks. The German authorities have since confirmed that the majority of the suspects were of North African origin and were not newly arrived refugees.

What was the impact on the rest of Europe?

The impact of the Cologne attacks on the rest of Europe was profound and far-reaching. The events in Cologne and other German cities over New Year's Eve left a deep imprint in Germany and beyond, tapping into society's deepest fears and causing a sharp divide in the country. The boldness of the assaults and the sense of a powerless state haunted the victims, and the essential glue of any society, trust, was lost. A widely held suspicion that the political elite was not being candid with the German public fuelled a sense of crisis. This was exacerbated by the initial police report, which described the evening as "relaxed" and "largely peaceful", and the delayed acknowledgement that asylum seekers were among the suspects. The German public broadcaster ZDF faced criticism for not covering the attacks until four days after they occurred, admitting that this was a "clear misjudgement". The impact of the attacks extended beyond Germany, with the Viennese police chief advising women not to go out alone at night, causing an outcry. The events in Cologne also put pressure on Chancellor Angela Merkel and her refugee policy, with political allies and opponents calling for a limit on refugee numbers. The debate about the wisdom of sanctioning large-scale migration in Europe was re-kindled, and checkpoints, border patrols, and fences began to spring up across the continent.

What was the impact on Germany?

The impact of the Cologne attacks on Germany was profound and far-reaching. The events of New Year's Eve in Cologne and other cities left a deep imprint in the country, tapping into society's deepest fears and causing a sharp divide. The consensus in favour of accepting 1.1 million refugees was already fraying, but the country was now deeply uneasy.

Loss of Trust in the Government

There was a widely held suspicion that the German government and police were not being candid about the attacks, and that the media was complicit in this. The initial police report described the evening as "relaxed" and "largely peaceful", and it took the better part of a week for authorities to acknowledge that asylum seekers were among the suspects. This fuelled a sense of crisis and the idea of a "lying press" took root. The German public broadcaster ZDF faced criticism for not reporting on the incidents until four days after the attacks and later admitted it had made a "clear misjudgement".

Impact on Refugees

The attacks had a significant impact on the perception of refugees in Germany. Although the crime rate among asylum seekers was not higher than among similar groups in the native population, the boldness of the assaults and the sense of a powerless state led to a breakdown of trust. The events in Cologne fuelled anti-immigrant sentiment and gave ammunition to right-wing and xenophobic groups. There were calls to limit refugee numbers and deport those convicted of crimes, and the attacks were used as an angle of attack on Angela Merkel's "open-door" refugee policy. The events also impacted the lives of refugees in Germany, with reports of refugees being barred from swimming pools and clubs, and an increase in crimes against asylum seekers and their homes.

Impact on Women

The attacks had a profound impact on women in Germany, with a sense of powerlessness and fear lingering after the assaults. Women felt they were being asked to change their behaviour, with the mayor of Cologne suggesting it would be wise for women to "keep men at arm's length". This caused outrage, with women feeling torn between their outrage at the assaults and their reluctance to lend support to racist groups.

Impact on Politics

The attacks had a significant impact on German politics, particularly Angela Merkel's refugee policy and her political authority. There were calls for Merkel to limit refugee numbers and to change laws to make it easier to deport those convicted of sexual assault. Although Merkel initially resisted, her political allies demanded this, and her authority was weakened by the events. Pressure was also placed on Merkel from within her own party, with members watching closely how the CDU fared in the upcoming state elections. The attacks also impacted politics in other European countries, with similar debates around migration and refugee policies being re-kindled.

Impact on Society and Culture

The attacks caused a breakdown of trust in German society, with a sense that the political elite was not being candid with the public. There was also a sense of unease around the integration of refugees, with fears of parallel societies taking root with different cultural rules. The attacks caused a shift in the social climate, with an increase in anti-immigrant sentiment and a more hostile environment for refugees.

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