Understanding Cologne Attacks: A Dangerous Trend

The Cologne attacks refer to a series of sexual assaults and robberies that took place in the German city of Cologne during New Year's Eve celebrations in 2015-2016. The attacks primarily targeted women and were carried out by gangs of young men of Arab or North African origin. The incidents sparked widespread outrage and debate in Germany and across the world, with many questioning the initial response of the police and media, who were accused of downplaying the severity of the attacks and failing to report on the ethnicity of the perpetrators. The attacks also fuelled anti-immigrant sentiment and criticism of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's refugee policies.

The perpetrators were of Arab or North African origin

The perpetrators of the Cologne attacks were identified by officials as Muslim men of Arab or North African origin. The attacks took place in the area of the cathedral and the main railway station in Cologne, Germany, during the 2015-2016 New Year's Eve celebrations. Approximately 1,200 women were reported to have been sexually assaulted, and more than 500 criminal complaints were filed, 40% of which alleged sexual assault.

The North Rhine-Westphalia state's interior minister, Ralf Jaeger, stated that the attacks were carried out by groups of men of North African and Arabic origin, with smaller groups forming to surround, threaten, and attack women. He added that the perpetrators were predominantly made up of North African men who had travelled to Cologne from different cities. The German police also confirmed that the suspects were "almost exclusively" from a migration background, mainly North African and Arab.

By April 2016, statistics showed that out of the 153 identified suspects in Cologne who were convicted of sexual offenses and other crimes, two-thirds were originally from Morocco or Algeria. Additionally, 44% were asylum seekers, 12% were likely to have been in Germany illegally, and 3% were underage unaccompanied refugees.

The scale of the assaults on women in Cologne and other German cities shocked Germany and led to criticism of Chancellor Angela Merkel's immigration policy. The Cologne police were also criticised for their handling of the situation, including not calling for reinforcements and their delayed communication to the public.

1,200 women were sexually assaulted

On New Year's Eve 2015-16, approximately 1,200 women were sexually assaulted in Germany, particularly in the city of Cologne. The perpetrators were described by victims and witnesses as "North African", "Arab", "dark-skinned", and "foreign". The Federal Criminal Police Office confirmed in July 2016 that 1,200 women were sexually assaulted that night.

The attacks were carried out by large groups of men, who surrounded and assaulted women in public spaces. The police and government initially speculated that the attacks were organised, but later stated that there were no indications of premeditation. The Cologne police chief suggested that the perpetrators had come from countries where such sexual assaults by groups of men are common. This was confirmed by a Federal Criminal Police Office report, which also identified five other contributing factors: group pressure, absence of police intervention, migrant frustrations, disinhibition caused by substance use, and disinhibition due to a lack of social ties.

By April 2016, statistics showed that of the 153 identified suspects in Cologne, two-thirds were from Morocco or Algeria, 44% were asylum seekers, 12% were likely to have been in Germany illegally, and 3% were unaccompanied underage refugees. Half of the 120 identified suspects of sexual offences had arrived in Germany in 2015, and most of those were from North Africa. By November 2016, around 200 suspects of the sexual assaults had been identified across Germany.

The response to the attacks was complicated by concerns about fuelling anti-immigrant sentiment. There was criticism of the media and government for not adequately reporting the events and avoiding discussion of the attackers' ethnicities. There were also accusations of a media cover-up, with suggestions that the national media was forced by social media to report on the attackers' ethnicities. This led to a broader discussion about the role of immigration in the attacks and a hardening of attitudes towards migrants and refugees.

In the aftermath of the attacks, there were calls for increased police presence and video surveillance, as well as changes to the law on sexual violence. There were also demonstrations against sexual violence, and sales of pepper spray for self-defence to women skyrocketed.

The attacks were seemingly organised

The German Minister of Justice, Heiko Maas, declared that these sex crimes were "organised crime" and the police reckoned with the possibility that the attacks had been planned. However, the new Cologne police chief, Jürgen Mathies, rejected the idea of organised crime, suggesting that the gathering of young men at the central train station came about organically via social networking sites.

The attacks were also seemingly well-coordinated. The men arrived in large groups, with a specific intention to carry out attacks on women. The groping was a novel way of disorientating victims long enough to pick their pockets.

The attacks also seemed to be premeditated. One of the suspects had prepared himself with Arabic-German translations written on a piece of paper for phrases like "beautiful breasts" and "I want sex with you".

Police were criticised for their response

The police response to the Cologne attacks was heavily criticised. The police were accused of incompetence, and of withholding information about the attacks, particularly the origin of the suspects. The police were also criticised for not intervening quickly enough, and for failing to request backup when the situation escalated. The police were also blamed for not adequately briefing the state interior minister.

The police were also criticised for their handling of the events of the night of the attacks. They were accused of initially stating that the night had been "relaxed", and of only later acknowledging that this was wrong. The police were also blamed for not acting swiftly enough, and for not coordinating their actions effectively. The police were also criticised for their use of cell phones for communication, instead of police radios, which led to a breakdown in communication when cell service collapsed.

The police were also blamed for their failure to adequately police a bridge near the scene of the attacks, which became overcrowded, leading to panic, and further escalating the situation.

The attacks had far-reaching repercussions

The attacks in Cologne on New Year's Eve 2015 had far-reaching repercussions. The events of that night changed German politics and society forever.

Political and social impact

The attacks brought fundamental sociopolitical issues to the fore, triggering a worldwide media response. They were used as a cautionary tale by anti-immigration groups and politicians, including the US presidential candidate Donald Trump, who seized on the events as evidence of the dangers of a "misguided refugee policy".

In Germany, the long-running debate about migration policy and how to live together in a pluralistic society flared up. Citizens who had previously had no concerns about immigration now felt a newfound need for security. Sales of alarm pistols, pepper spray, and tear gas soared to record levels. The far-right populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) exploited people's reservations, fears, and anger to gain votes, and soon became the largest opposition party in the Bundestag.

Changes to the law

As a result of the incident, Germany tightened its laws on asylum and made it easier and quicker to deport foreigners who committed crimes.

The country's sexual offense laws were also reformed. Behshid Najafi, an educator from a Cologne-based women's help service, explained that "until then, sexual assault was not a criminal offense". Because of what happened on New Year's Eve, that law changed in November 2016. The principle of "no means no" was applied, and a sexual act would be considered rape even if the victim did not actively try to defend themselves. If sexual crimes were committed in a group, all participants in that group would be liable for prosecution.

Media guidelines

The media was accused of being too hesitant to report on the foreign citizenship of the suspects. As a result, the press council changed its guidelines for naming alleged offenders. Previously, the press code stated that journalists should refrain from naming a suspected criminal's country of origin or migration background. Now, the code states that this information can be reported "if there is a justified public interest".

Police response

The Cologne police assembled a group of specialists to ensure there was no repeat of the incident the following year. On New Year's Eve 2016-2017, more officers were deployed to the streets. Safety plans were revised, and police training was adapted to meet the demands of the situation.

However, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel's call to "identify the culprits as quickly and comprehensively as possible and punish them, regardless of their origin or background" proved challenging. The Cologne public prosecutor's office investigated a total of 290 people, but only 37 cases were completed, with 32 resulting in convictions, most of them for theft or similar offenses. Only two men were convicted and sentenced for sexual assault.

The chaotic nature of the attacks made it almost impossible to attribute specific acts to individual perpetrators.

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